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Tension Index Covert Horizon

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The Covert Horizon Tension Index is our own indicator (5 = routine, 1 = maximum), worked out from real escalation events in the last 24 hours (strikes, invasions, mobilisation, diplomatic ruptures, stand-offs, nuclear signalling), weighted by severity, the powers involved and how many outlets confirm them, and compared with the past week. Exercises, contracts, analysis and opinion don't count. It is not an official assessment and is unrelated to the U.S. DEFCON level.

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Latest defence & security headlines

Kremlin Warns Lithuania Lifting Nuclear Arms Ban Risks Escalation — The Moscow Times
War in Ukraine Escalates With Drone Strikes on Cargo Ships — gCaptain
France fires upgraded nuclear-capable missile from submarine for first time — Defense News
French nuclear deterrence works. Macron observed a ballistic missile test — Defence24
Deterrence: The Nuclear Missile Launcher Submarine Le Vigilant successfully fired an M51.3 strategic missile — Zone Militaire – Opex360 (French)
First Release Of USAF’s New HACM Hypersonic Cruise Missile Has Happened Over Australian Range — The War Zone
Netanyahu warns Hamas against election attacks, vows ‘tremendous force’ — The Jerusalem Post
Russian drones attack ship in Black Sea, one Indian injured, two killed: Authorities — IDRW
Exercise Strike Warrior 2026 puts NATO firepower behind UK Commandos — Navy Lookout
India Is Set To Launch Its First 43,500-Tonne Fleet Support Ship To Resupply Warships At Sea — Marine Insight
Cargo Ship Carrying Indian And Azerbaijani Crew Sinks In Black Sea After Drone Strike, 2 Killed — Marine Insight
France fires its newest nuclear missile from a submarine — Defence Blog
Ukrainian drones kill two, hit fuel hub in one of biggest attacks on Moscow region, Russian war bloggers say — Reuters
Fear and disruption for Ukraine's rail passengers as Russia escalates drone attacks — BBC News – World
U.S. approves potential $832 million Javelin sale to Egypt for 2,020 anti-tank missiles and 200 lightweight command launch units — Defence Industry Europe
2 Killed in Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack on Moscow — The Moscow Times
France conducts first submarine launch of M51.3 strategic ballistic missile from Le Vigilant — Defence Industry Europe
Attack aircraft, military vehicles visible at China-Laos base — Taipei Times
State parliament elects Germany’s first far-right speaker since second world war — The Guardian – World
Pakistan successfully tests launch of extended-range Fatah-IV cruise missile: ISPR — Dawn
White House, Anduril announce plans for new ‘software-defined’ shipyard to help build attack submarines — DefenseScoop
French submarine fires new nuclear weapon — UK Defence Journal
11 Indians injured after attack on ship near Oman, MEA condemns strike — The Indian Express
Katz threatens all-out war on PA while IDF insists no concrete intelligence of attack — The Jerusalem Post
U.S. Navy warship sensor deal could reach $1.7 billion — Defence Blog
Police clash with Kosovo protesters over bid to curb Hague war crimes court — Al Jazeera
India, Switzerland to strengthen ties in defence, nuclear energy sectors — The Indian Express
The Royal British Navy’s most modern nuclear submarine arrives at its home port in Clyde to begin sea trials — Zona Militar
Russia says Ukraine hit two facilities at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant — Reuters
Anduril, U.S. Navy Invest $6.6 Billion to Expand America’s Submarine Industrial Base — Seapower Magazine

Flashpoints: Russia–Ukraine War · Israel–Gaza & Lebanon · Iran & the Gulf · Red Sea & Yemen · Taiwan Strait · South China Sea · India–Pakistan & Kashmir · Pakistan–Afghanistan · Korean Peninsula · Sudan · Myanmar · Tension Index · Daily Brief